Abstract:
How will a rising China shape international order? This project argues that rising powers neither seek to replace the existing rules, nor are they content with following the rules to pursue change from within. Instead, rising powers are cautious opportunists — China shapes international order by commandeering the very rules the US helped create. Rising powers are sensitive to relative gains because of their competitive relationship with the incumbent. Consequently, they seek to lower the costs of change and increase friction for incumbent pushback. Working with existing rules — being cautious — achieves both goals.
This project presents the theory of cautious opportunism, which explains how rising powers like China choose between four strategies that work with existing rules to enact change — (1) drift, which derives benefits by obstructing change to outdated rules; (2) cooptation, which repurposes rules towards new ends; (3) reform, which explicitly changes the content of the rule; and (4) exceptionalism, which mitigates the rule’s negative effects through hypocrisy. Strategy choice is based on the rule’s net utility, precision, and whether China has a high baseline level of support for its desired change. Only when "cautious" strategies have failed will China assess the costs of creating a new institution, and opportunistically wait for a window with lowered risks of incumbent pushback. I test this argument through case studies of China’s behavior in international trade, development finance, arms control, and maritime issues. The project advances the power transition literature beyond the simple binary of rule compliance, and shows how challengers can appropriate rules created by those in power. It also calls for a conceptual shift in international relations: instead of asking if China is playing by the rules, we should focus on what it is doing to the rules.
Speaker's Bio:
Raymond Wang is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the China and World Program at Columbia University, an affiliate at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute. He is also a Research Fellow at the International Security Program at the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School. His research examines how rising powers shape international order by commandeering the existing rules, rather than overturning them or building alternative institutions. He is also interested in economic statecraft and knowledge transfer between the military and civilian sectors. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from MIT and will be an Assistant Professor at the Pardee School at Boston University starting Fall 2026.
This event is hosted by the China and the World Program and co-sponsored by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute.
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